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Showing posts with label extra terrestrial life. Show all posts
Showing posts with label extra terrestrial life. Show all posts
How to Find Habitable Planets in Our Galaxy's Danger Zone
This artist’s impression shows the planet orbiting the Sun-like star HD 85512 about 35 light-years from Earth.
This artist’s impression shows the planet HD 85512b orbiting the Sun-like star HD 85512 about 35 light-years from Earth. This planet is about 3.6 times as massive as the Earth is at the edge of the habitable zone around the star, where liquid water, and perhaps even life, could potentially exist.
CREDIT: ESO/M. Kornmesser
We know for certain that life exists in the Milky Way galaxy: that life is us. Scientists are continually looking to understand more about how life on our planet came to be and the conditions that must be met for its survival, and whether those conditions can be replicated elsewhere in the universe. It turns out that looking at our entire galaxy, rather than focusing just on life-giving properties of our planet or indeed the habitability of regions of our own solar system, is a good place to start.
How far our planet orbits from the sun, along with other factors such as atmospheric composition, a carbon cycle and the existence of water, has told astronomers much about the conditions that are required for life to not only originate, but to survive on rocky worlds. This distance from a star is referred to, quite simply, as the 'Habitable Zone' or sometimes the 'Goldilocks Zone'' because conditions here are neither too hot or too cold for water to be liquid on the planet’s surface — conditions just right for life as we know it to thrive. [Gallery: The Strangest Alien Planets]
Copernican theory tells us that our world is a typical rocky planet in a typical planetary system. This concept has spurred some astronomers to start thinking bigger, way beyond the simplicity of any one planetary system and instead towards much grander scales.
 
Astronomers are exploring whether there is a Galactic Habitable Zone (GHZ) in our Galaxy – a region of the Milky Way that is conducive to forming planetary systems with habitable worlds. The Galactic Habitable Zone implies that if there are conditions just right for a planet around a star, then the same must go for a galaxy.
This concept was first introduced by geologist and paleontologist Peter Ward and Donald Brownlee, an astronomer and astrobiologist, in their book, 'Rare Earth.' The idea of a GHZ served as an antagonistic view point to the Copernican principle.


Despite scientists such as Carl Sagan and Frank Drake favoring the theory of mediocrity based on the Copernican model, which supports the probability of the universe hosting other forms of complex life, Ward and Brownlee were certain our Earth and the conditions within our galaxy that allowed such life to evolve are both extremely rare. Their answer to the famous Fermi paradox – if extraterrestrial aliens are common, why is their existence not obvious? – is that alien life more complex than microbes is not very common at all, requiring a number of factors, each of low possibility, to come into play.
In short, Ward and Brownlee were suggesting that much of the galaxy was inhospitable to complex life. In their view, only a narrow belt around the galaxy was fertile: the Galactic Habitable Zone.
Since then, many astronomers have looked at the idea of the GHZ. Not all believe that it necessarily supports Ward and Brownlee's Rare Earth hypothesis.
One recent assessment of the GHZ, by Michael Gowanlock of NASA's Astrobiology Institute, and his Trent University colleagues David Patton and Sabine McConnell, has suggested that while the inner sector of the MIlky Way galaxy may be the most dangerous, it is also most likely to support habitable worlds. [Infographic: How Alien Solar Systems Stack Up]
A multi-wavelength image of the Milky Way's center. It is towards the galactic center where the highest number of stars and rocky planets reside, but also where the most supernovae occur.
A multi-wavelength image of the Milky Way's center. It is towards the galactic center where the highest number of stars and rocky planets reside, but also where the most supernovae occur.
CREDIT: NASA/JPL-Caltech/ESA/CXC/STScI.
Their paper, accepted for publication in the journal Astrobiology, modeled habitability in the Milky Way based on three factors: supernova rates, metallicity (the abundance of heavy elements, used as a proxy for planet formation) and the time taken for complex life to evolve. They found that although the greater density of stars in the inner galaxy (out to a distance of 8,100 light-years from the galactic center) meant that more supernovas exploded, with more planets becoming sterilized by the radiation from these exploding stars, the chances of finding a habitable planet there was 10 times more likely than in the outer galaxy.
This contradicts previous studies that, for example, suggested the GHZ to be a belt around the galaxy between distances of 22,800 light-years and 29,300 light-years from the galactic center. What's noticeable is that our sun orbits the galaxy at a distance of about 26,000 light-years – far outside GHZ proposed by Gowanlock's team.
Why is their proposed galactic habitable zone so different? [How Do Astronomers Find Alien Planets?]
"We assume that metallicity scales with planet formation," Gowanlock said.
Heavy elements are produced by dying stars, and the more generations of stars there have been, the greater the production of these elements (or ‘metals’ as they are termed by astronomers). Historically, the greatest amount of star formation has occurred in the inner region of the Milky Way.
"The inner galaxy is the most metal-rich, and the outer galaxy is the most metal-poor. Therefore the number of planets is highest in the inner galaxy, as the metallicity and stellar density is the highest in this region," Gowanlock said.
However, amongst so much star formation lurks a danger: supernovae. Gowanlock’s team modeled the effects of the two most common forms of supernovae – the accreting white dwarfs that produce type Ia supernovas, and the collapsing massive stars of type II supernovae.
Measurements of the galactic abundance of the isotope aluminum-26, which is a common by-product of type II supernovas, have allowed astronomers to ascertain that a supernova explodes on average once every 50 years. Meanwhile, previous studies have indicated that a supernova can have a deleterious effect on any habitable planet within 30 light- years.
A supernova sterilizes an alien world in this artist's impression.
A supernova sterilizes an alien world in this artist's impression.
CREDIT: David A Aguilar (CfA)
"In our model, we assume that the build-up of oxygen and the ozone layer is required for the emergence of complex life," Gowanlock said. "Supernovae can deplete the ozone in an atmosphere. Therefore, the survival of land-based complex life is at risk when a nearby supernova sufficiently depletes a great fraction of the ozone in a planet's atmosphere." [Supernova Photos: Great Images of Star Explosions]
The team discovered that at some time in their lives, the majority of stars in our galaxy will be bathed in the radiation from a nearby supernova, whereas around 30 percent of stars remain untouched or unsterilized.
"Sterilization occurs on a planet that is roughly [at a distance] between 6.5 to 98 light-years, depending on the supernovae," Gowanlock said. "In our model, the sterilization distances are not equal, as some supernovae are more lethal than others."
Although the outer regions of the galaxy, with their lower density of stars and fewer supernovas, are generally safer, the higher metallicity in the inner galaxy means that the chances of finding an unsterilized, habitable world are ten times greater, according to Gowanlock's model. However, their model does not stipulate any region of the galaxy to be uninhabitable, only that it’s less likely to find habitable planets elsewhere.
This explains why our Solar System can reside far outside of the inner region, and it also gives hope to SETI – Gowanlock's model proposes that there are regions of the galaxy even more likely to have life, and many SETI searches are already targeted towards the galactic center. [Field Guide to Alien Planets]
However, not all are in favor of the new model. Ward and Brownlee noted that the sun's position in the galaxy is far more favorable because planets that dance around stars that are too close to the galactic center are more likely to suffer from a perturbed orbit by the gravity of another star that has wandered too close. Others question some of the assumptions made in the research, such as the accuracy of the percentage of planets that are habitable in the galaxy (1.2 percent), or that tidally-locked worlds can be habitable.
“The authors may be making some assumptions that aren’t too well justified,” said Jim Kasting of Penn State University and author of "How to Find a Habitable Planet." "They seem well ahead of the rest of us who are still pondering these questions."
However, others believe that the research is promising. "This is one of the most complete studies of the Galactic Habitable Zone to date," said Lewis Dartnell, an astrobiologist at University College London. "The results are intriguing, finding that white dwarf supernovae are over five times more lethal to complex life on habitable worlds than core collapse supernovae."
The GHZ isn't static; the research paper written by Gowanlock's team points out that over time the metallicity of the galaxy will begin to increase the farther out one travels from the galactic center.
"This is why stars that form at a later date have a greater chance of having terrestrial planets," Gowanlock said. As a result, perhaps the heyday for life in our galaxy is yet to come.
This story was provided by Astrobiology Magazine, a web-based publication sponsored by the NASA astrobiology program.

How to Find Habitable Planets in Our Galaxy's Danger Zone

How to Find Habitable Planets in Our Galaxy's Danger Zone
This artist’s impression shows the planet orbiting the Sun-like star HD 85512 about 35 light-years from Earth.
This artist’s impression shows the planet HD 85512b orbiting the Sun-like star HD 85512 about 35 light-years from Earth. This planet is about 3.6 times as massive as the Earth is at the edge of the habitable zone around the star, where liquid water, and perhaps even life, could potentially exist.
CREDIT: ESO/M. Kornmesser
We know for certain that life exists in the Milky Way galaxy: that life is us. Scientists are continually looking to understand more about how life on our planet came to be and the conditions that must be met for its survival, and whether those conditions can be replicated elsewhere in the universe. It turns out that looking at our entire galaxy, rather than focusing just on life-giving properties of our planet or indeed the habitability of regions of our own solar system, is a good place to start.
How far our planet orbits from the sun, along with other factors such as atmospheric composition, a carbon cycle and the existence of water, has told astronomers much about the conditions that are required for life to not only originate, but to survive on rocky worlds. This distance from a star is referred to, quite simply, as the 'Habitable Zone' or sometimes the 'Goldilocks Zone'' because conditions here are neither too hot or too cold for water to be liquid on the planet’s surface — conditions just right for life as we know it to thrive. [Gallery: The Strangest Alien Planets]
Copernican theory tells us that our world is a typical rocky planet in a typical planetary system. This concept has spurred some astronomers to start thinking bigger, way beyond the simplicity of any one planetary system and instead towards much grander scales.
 
Astronomers are exploring whether there is a Galactic Habitable Zone (GHZ) in our Galaxy – a region of the Milky Way that is conducive to forming planetary systems with habitable worlds. The Galactic Habitable Zone implies that if there are conditions just right for a planet around a star, then the same must go for a galaxy.
This concept was first introduced by geologist and paleontologist Peter Ward and Donald Brownlee, an astronomer and astrobiologist, in their book, 'Rare Earth.' The idea of a GHZ served as an antagonistic view point to the Copernican principle.


Despite scientists such as Carl Sagan and Frank Drake favoring the theory of mediocrity based on the Copernican model, which supports the probability of the universe hosting other forms of complex life, Ward and Brownlee were certain our Earth and the conditions within our galaxy that allowed such life to evolve are both extremely rare. Their answer to the famous Fermi paradox – if extraterrestrial aliens are common, why is their existence not obvious? – is that alien life more complex than microbes is not very common at all, requiring a number of factors, each of low possibility, to come into play.
In short, Ward and Brownlee were suggesting that much of the galaxy was inhospitable to complex life. In their view, only a narrow belt around the galaxy was fertile: the Galactic Habitable Zone.
Since then, many astronomers have looked at the idea of the GHZ. Not all believe that it necessarily supports Ward and Brownlee's Rare Earth hypothesis.
One recent assessment of the GHZ, by Michael Gowanlock of NASA's Astrobiology Institute, and his Trent University colleagues David Patton and Sabine McConnell, has suggested that while the inner sector of the MIlky Way galaxy may be the most dangerous, it is also most likely to support habitable worlds. [Infographic: How Alien Solar Systems Stack Up]
A multi-wavelength image of the Milky Way's center. It is towards the galactic center where the highest number of stars and rocky planets reside, but also where the most supernovae occur.
A multi-wavelength image of the Milky Way's center. It is towards the galactic center where the highest number of stars and rocky planets reside, but also where the most supernovae occur.
CREDIT: NASA/JPL-Caltech/ESA/CXC/STScI.
Their paper, accepted for publication in the journal Astrobiology, modeled habitability in the Milky Way based on three factors: supernova rates, metallicity (the abundance of heavy elements, used as a proxy for planet formation) and the time taken for complex life to evolve. They found that although the greater density of stars in the inner galaxy (out to a distance of 8,100 light-years from the galactic center) meant that more supernovas exploded, with more planets becoming sterilized by the radiation from these exploding stars, the chances of finding a habitable planet there was 10 times more likely than in the outer galaxy.
This contradicts previous studies that, for example, suggested the GHZ to be a belt around the galaxy between distances of 22,800 light-years and 29,300 light-years from the galactic center. What's noticeable is that our sun orbits the galaxy at a distance of about 26,000 light-years – far outside GHZ proposed by Gowanlock's team.
Why is their proposed galactic habitable zone so different? [How Do Astronomers Find Alien Planets?]
"We assume that metallicity scales with planet formation," Gowanlock said.
Heavy elements are produced by dying stars, and the more generations of stars there have been, the greater the production of these elements (or ‘metals’ as they are termed by astronomers). Historically, the greatest amount of star formation has occurred in the inner region of the Milky Way.
"The inner galaxy is the most metal-rich, and the outer galaxy is the most metal-poor. Therefore the number of planets is highest in the inner galaxy, as the metallicity and stellar density is the highest in this region," Gowanlock said.
However, amongst so much star formation lurks a danger: supernovae. Gowanlock’s team modeled the effects of the two most common forms of supernovae – the accreting white dwarfs that produce type Ia supernovas, and the collapsing massive stars of type II supernovae.
Measurements of the galactic abundance of the isotope aluminum-26, which is a common by-product of type II supernovas, have allowed astronomers to ascertain that a supernova explodes on average once every 50 years. Meanwhile, previous studies have indicated that a supernova can have a deleterious effect on any habitable planet within 30 light- years.
A supernova sterilizes an alien world in this artist's impression.
A supernova sterilizes an alien world in this artist's impression.
CREDIT: David A Aguilar (CfA)
"In our model, we assume that the build-up of oxygen and the ozone layer is required for the emergence of complex life," Gowanlock said. "Supernovae can deplete the ozone in an atmosphere. Therefore, the survival of land-based complex life is at risk when a nearby supernova sufficiently depletes a great fraction of the ozone in a planet's atmosphere." [Supernova Photos: Great Images of Star Explosions]
The team discovered that at some time in their lives, the majority of stars in our galaxy will be bathed in the radiation from a nearby supernova, whereas around 30 percent of stars remain untouched or unsterilized.
"Sterilization occurs on a planet that is roughly [at a distance] between 6.5 to 98 light-years, depending on the supernovae," Gowanlock said. "In our model, the sterilization distances are not equal, as some supernovae are more lethal than others."
Although the outer regions of the galaxy, with their lower density of stars and fewer supernovas, are generally safer, the higher metallicity in the inner galaxy means that the chances of finding an unsterilized, habitable world are ten times greater, according to Gowanlock's model. However, their model does not stipulate any region of the galaxy to be uninhabitable, only that it’s less likely to find habitable planets elsewhere.
This explains why our Solar System can reside far outside of the inner region, and it also gives hope to SETI – Gowanlock's model proposes that there are regions of the galaxy even more likely to have life, and many SETI searches are already targeted towards the galactic center. [Field Guide to Alien Planets]
However, not all are in favor of the new model. Ward and Brownlee noted that the sun's position in the galaxy is far more favorable because planets that dance around stars that are too close to the galactic center are more likely to suffer from a perturbed orbit by the gravity of another star that has wandered too close. Others question some of the assumptions made in the research, such as the accuracy of the percentage of planets that are habitable in the galaxy (1.2 percent), or that tidally-locked worlds can be habitable.
“The authors may be making some assumptions that aren’t too well justified,” said Jim Kasting of Penn State University and author of "How to Find a Habitable Planet." "They seem well ahead of the rest of us who are still pondering these questions."
However, others believe that the research is promising. "This is one of the most complete studies of the Galactic Habitable Zone to date," said Lewis Dartnell, an astrobiologist at University College London. "The results are intriguing, finding that white dwarf supernovae are over five times more lethal to complex life on habitable worlds than core collapse supernovae."
The GHZ isn't static; the research paper written by Gowanlock's team points out that over time the metallicity of the galaxy will begin to increase the farther out one travels from the galactic center.
"This is why stars that form at a later date have a greater chance of having terrestrial planets," Gowanlock said. As a result, perhaps the heyday for life in our galaxy is yet to come.
This story was provided by Astrobiology Magazine, a web-based publication sponsored by the NASA astrobiology program.

Ever since humans acknowledged the enormity of the universe, we have intuited that life must exist somewhere, either in our galaxy or some galaxy far, far away. If the­ universe contains billions of galaxies, and if each galaxy contains billions of stars, and if a fraction of those stars have Earth-like planets, then hundreds -- maybe even thousands -- of alien civilizations must exist across the cosmos. Right?
Milky Way Image Gallery
Super Earths orbiting a sunlike star
Photo © ESO
In June 2008, European astronomers discovered three super Earths orbiting what they thought was a solo star. The discovery was good news for the possibility of life elsewhere in the universe. See more Milky Way pictures.

For a while, science contented itself with the logic alone. Then, in 1995, astronomers located the first planets outside our solar system. Since then, they've detected nearly 300 of these extra-solar planets. Although most are large, hot planets similar to Jupiter (which is why they're easier to find), smaller, Earth-like planets are beginning to reveal themselves. In June 2008, European astronomers found three planets, all a little larger than Earth, orbiting a star 42 light-years away [source: Vastag].

 

­These discoveries have served as an affirmation for those involved with the search for extraterrestrial intelligent life, or SETI. Harvard physicist and SETI leader Paul Horowitz boldly stated in a 1996 interview with TIME Magazine, "Intelligent life in the universe? Guaranteed. Intelligent life in our galaxy? So overwhelmingly likely that I'd give you almost any odds you'd like."
And yet his enthusiasm must be tempered by what scientists call the Fermi Paradox. This paradox, first articulated by nuclear physicist Enrico Fermi in 1950, asks the following questions: If extraterrestrials are so common, why haven't they visited? Why haven't they communicated with us? Or, finally, why haven't they left behind some residue of their existence, such as heat or light or some other electromagnetic offal?
Perhaps extraterrestrial life isn't so common after all. Or perhaps extraterrestrial life that gives rise to advanced civilizations isn't so common. If only astronomers could quantify those odds. If only they had a formula that accounted for all of the right variables related to extraterrestrial life. As it turns out, they do. In 1961, as a way to help convene the first serious conference on SETI, radio astronomer Frank Drake presented a formula, now known as the Drake Equation, that estimates the number of potential intelligent civilizations in our galaxy. The formula has generated much controversy, mainly because it leads to widely variable results. And yet it remains our one best way to quantify just how many extraterrestrials are out there trying to communicate.
Let's take a closer look at the equation and its implications.
 

Are We Alone? The Drake Equation

Trying to calculate the probability that extraterrestrial life exists in the universe is actually quite complicated. The universe isn't a static environment. Stars are born, they live and they die. Some stars form in association with planets. Others don't. Only some of those planets have the right conditions to support life.
Life is a tricky variable in its own right. Some planets might support complex organic molecules -- proteins and nucleic acids -- and nothing else. Other planets might support simple, single-celled organisms. And still others might support multicellular organisms, including those advanced enough to develop the technologies to travel or send signals into outer space. Finally, even organisms that have adapted extremely well to their environments don't last forever. As both the dinosaurs and the Roman Empire illustrate here on Earth, all dynasties come to an end, be it cataclysmic or otherwise.
Jodie Foster in Contact
Getty Images
Ellie Arroway, played by Jodie Foster in the movie "Contact," was consumed by the thought of life on other planets.

Fra­nk D­rake had to account for all of these variables in developing a formula to quantify the odds of finding extraterrestrial life. His first task was deciding what he wanted to calculate. First, he limited his thinking to extraterrestrials in our home galaxy -- and only those that might be capable of interstellar communication. Then he inserted a mathematical factor to account for all of the conditions required to enable such civilizations to evolve. The result is the following formula:
N = RfpneflfifcL
In this equation, N is the number of detectable civilizations in our galaxy. The other variables are described below:
  • R is the rate of star formation in the galaxy
  • fp is the fraction of stars that form planets
  • ne is the number of planets hospitable to life (i.e., Earth-like planets)
  • fl is the fraction of these planets on which life actually emerges
  • fi is the fraction of these planets on which intelligent life arises
  • fc is the fraction of these planets with intelligent beings capable of interstellar communication
  • L is the length of time such a civilization remains detectable
The only variable known with any degree of certainty is the rate of stellar formation, R. In the Milky Way, a typical spiral galaxy, new stars form at a rate of roughly four per year [source: Cain]. The variable astronomers feel most uncertain about is L, the length of time a civilization remains detectable. A variety of estimates have been used for L, ranging from 10 years to 10 million years.
Astronomers can make educated guesses about the rest of the variables. For example, of the nine planets in our solar system, only four are what astronomers call terrestrial planets -- those that have a solid surface. Of those terrestrial planets, only Earth supports life. If we take our solar system as representative, then we might argue that ne equals 1/4 or 0.25. Similar guesses have been made about the other variables and, interestingly, they all end up having very similar values, usually in a range between 0.1 and 1.0. So, a typical calculation might look like this:
N = 4 x 0.5 x 0.25 x 0.2 x 0.2 x 0.2 x 3,000,000
which gives us a value of 12,000 civilizations in our galaxy.
Drake's original calculations were very close to this value for N. When he ran the numbers, he predicted that there might be 10,000 detectable civilizations in the Milky Way [source: Garber]. Carl Sagan, a leader in the SETI movement until he passed away in 1996, was even more generous when he suggested that 1 million civilizations might exist in the galaxy [source: Lemarchand]. That's a lot of ETs!
No wonder astronomers were so optimistic when they started searching diligently for extraterrestrial life in the 1960s. On the next page, we'll look at how they've conducted this search and what it has turned up.
 

Testing and Revising the Drake Equation

Armed with an estimate of the number of communicative civilizations in our galaxy, SETI scientists set out to find them. They had two basic options: face-to-face communication or long-distance communication. The former scenario required that extraterrestrials visit humans or vice versa. This seemed highly unlikely given the distances between our solar system and other stars in the Milky Way. The latter scenario involved radio broadcasts, either sending or receiving electromagnetic signals through space.
Arecibo Observatory
Photo courtesy of the NAIC - Arecibo Observatory, a facility of the NSF
Aerial view of the Arecibo Observatory in Puerto Rico

In 1974, astronomers intentionally transmitted a 210-byte message from the Arecibo Observatory in Puerto Rico in the hopes of signaling a civilization in the globular star cluster M13. The message contained fundamental information about humans and our corner of the universe, such as the atomic numbers of key elements and the chemical structure of DNA. But this sort of active communication has been rare. Astronomers mostly rely on passive communication -- listening for transmissions sent by alien civilizations.
A radio telescope is the tool of choice for such listening experiments because it's designed to detect longer-wavelength energy that optical telescopes can't see. In radio astronomy, a giant dish is pointed to a nearby, sunlike star and tuned to the microwave region of the electromagnetic spectrum. The microwave frequency band, between 1,000 megahertz and 3,000 megahertz (MHz), is ideal because it's less contaminated with unwanted noise. It also contains an emission line -- 1,420 MHz -- that astronomers can hear as a persistent hiss across the galaxy. This narrow line corresponds to energy transformations taking place in neutral hydrogen. As a primordial element of the universe, hydrogen should be known to all intergalactic civilizations, making it an ideal marker. Several teams from around the world have been systematically listening to stars across the Milky Way and adjacent galaxies since 1960.
Despite their collective efforts, no SETI search has received a confirmed, extraterrestrial signal. Our telescopes have picked up a few unexplained and intriguing signals, such as the so-called "Wow" signal detected by researchers at Ohio State University in 1977, but no transmission has been repeated in such a way that it provides indisputable evidence of extraterrestrial life. All of which brings us back to the Fermi Paradox: If thousands of civilizations in the Milky Way galaxy, why haven't we detected them?
Since Drake and Sagan made their estimates, astronomers have become more conservative. Paul Horowitz, who boldly guaranteed the existence of extraterrestrial life, has generated more modest results from the Drake Equation, finding that N may be closer to 1,000 civilizations [source: Crawford]. But even that figure may be too large.
In 2002, Skeptic magazine publisher Michael Shermer argued that astronomers weren't being critical enough in their evaluation of L, the length of time a civilization remains detectable. Looking at 60 civilizations that have existed on Earth since the dawn of humanity, Shermer came up with a value for L that ranged from 304.5 years to 420.6 years. If you plug these numbers into the Drake Equation, you find that N equals 2.44 and 3.36, respectively. Tweak the numbers some more, and you can easily get N to fall to one or even lower. Suddenly, the odds of hearing from an extraterrestrial life form are considerably lower.
Even the most enthusiastic SETI supporters are troubled by the lack of results produced by more than 40 years of "listening" to the cosmic airwaves. And yet most of that search has been confined to our home galaxy. Even if there are only three or four civilizations per galaxy, there are billions and billions of galaxies. This tilts the odds again in favor of finding extraterrestrial life, which is why many SETI astronomers take the same approach to their work as lottery players: You can't win if you don't play.

What are the odds there is life in outer space?

Ever since humans acknowledged the enormity of the universe, we have intuited that life must exist somewhere, either in our galaxy or some galaxy far, far away. If the­ universe contains billions of galaxies, and if each galaxy contains billions of stars, and if a fraction of those stars have Earth-like planets, then hundreds -- maybe even thousands -- of alien civilizations must exist across the cosmos. Right?
Milky Way Image Gallery
Super Earths orbiting a sunlike star
Photo © ESO
In June 2008, European astronomers discovered three super Earths orbiting what they thought was a solo star. The discovery was good news for the possibility of life elsewhere in the universe. See more Milky Way pictures.

For a while, science contented itself with the logic alone. Then, in 1995, astronomers located the first planets outside our solar system. Since then, they've detected nearly 300 of these extra-solar planets. Although most are large, hot planets similar to Jupiter (which is why they're easier to find), smaller, Earth-like planets are beginning to reveal themselves. In June 2008, European astronomers found three planets, all a little larger than Earth, orbiting a star 42 light-years away [source: Vastag].

 

­These discoveries have served as an affirmation for those involved with the search for extraterrestrial intelligent life, or SETI. Harvard physicist and SETI leader Paul Horowitz boldly stated in a 1996 interview with TIME Magazine, "Intelligent life in the universe? Guaranteed. Intelligent life in our galaxy? So overwhelmingly likely that I'd give you almost any odds you'd like."
And yet his enthusiasm must be tempered by what scientists call the Fermi Paradox. This paradox, first articulated by nuclear physicist Enrico Fermi in 1950, asks the following questions: If extraterrestrials are so common, why haven't they visited? Why haven't they communicated with us? Or, finally, why haven't they left behind some residue of their existence, such as heat or light or some other electromagnetic offal?
Perhaps extraterrestrial life isn't so common after all. Or perhaps extraterrestrial life that gives rise to advanced civilizations isn't so common. If only astronomers could quantify those odds. If only they had a formula that accounted for all of the right variables related to extraterrestrial life. As it turns out, they do. In 1961, as a way to help convene the first serious conference on SETI, radio astronomer Frank Drake presented a formula, now known as the Drake Equation, that estimates the number of potential intelligent civilizations in our galaxy. The formula has generated much controversy, mainly because it leads to widely variable results. And yet it remains our one best way to quantify just how many extraterrestrials are out there trying to communicate.
Let's take a closer look at the equation and its implications.
 

Are We Alone? The Drake Equation

Trying to calculate the probability that extraterrestrial life exists in the universe is actually quite complicated. The universe isn't a static environment. Stars are born, they live and they die. Some stars form in association with planets. Others don't. Only some of those planets have the right conditions to support life.
Life is a tricky variable in its own right. Some planets might support complex organic molecules -- proteins and nucleic acids -- and nothing else. Other planets might support simple, single-celled organisms. And still others might support multicellular organisms, including those advanced enough to develop the technologies to travel or send signals into outer space. Finally, even organisms that have adapted extremely well to their environments don't last forever. As both the dinosaurs and the Roman Empire illustrate here on Earth, all dynasties come to an end, be it cataclysmic or otherwise.
Jodie Foster in Contact
Getty Images
Ellie Arroway, played by Jodie Foster in the movie "Contact," was consumed by the thought of life on other planets.

Fra­nk D­rake had to account for all of these variables in developing a formula to quantify the odds of finding extraterrestrial life. His first task was deciding what he wanted to calculate. First, he limited his thinking to extraterrestrials in our home galaxy -- and only those that might be capable of interstellar communication. Then he inserted a mathematical factor to account for all of the conditions required to enable such civilizations to evolve. The result is the following formula:
N = RfpneflfifcL
In this equation, N is the number of detectable civilizations in our galaxy. The other variables are described below:
  • R is the rate of star formation in the galaxy
  • fp is the fraction of stars that form planets
  • ne is the number of planets hospitable to life (i.e., Earth-like planets)
  • fl is the fraction of these planets on which life actually emerges
  • fi is the fraction of these planets on which intelligent life arises
  • fc is the fraction of these planets with intelligent beings capable of interstellar communication
  • L is the length of time such a civilization remains detectable
The only variable known with any degree of certainty is the rate of stellar formation, R. In the Milky Way, a typical spiral galaxy, new stars form at a rate of roughly four per year [source: Cain]. The variable astronomers feel most uncertain about is L, the length of time a civilization remains detectable. A variety of estimates have been used for L, ranging from 10 years to 10 million years.
Astronomers can make educated guesses about the rest of the variables. For example, of the nine planets in our solar system, only four are what astronomers call terrestrial planets -- those that have a solid surface. Of those terrestrial planets, only Earth supports life. If we take our solar system as representative, then we might argue that ne equals 1/4 or 0.25. Similar guesses have been made about the other variables and, interestingly, they all end up having very similar values, usually in a range between 0.1 and 1.0. So, a typical calculation might look like this:
N = 4 x 0.5 x 0.25 x 0.2 x 0.2 x 0.2 x 3,000,000
which gives us a value of 12,000 civilizations in our galaxy.
Drake's original calculations were very close to this value for N. When he ran the numbers, he predicted that there might be 10,000 detectable civilizations in the Milky Way [source: Garber]. Carl Sagan, a leader in the SETI movement until he passed away in 1996, was even more generous when he suggested that 1 million civilizations might exist in the galaxy [source: Lemarchand]. That's a lot of ETs!
No wonder astronomers were so optimistic when they started searching diligently for extraterrestrial life in the 1960s. On the next page, we'll look at how they've conducted this search and what it has turned up.
 

Testing and Revising the Drake Equation

Armed with an estimate of the number of communicative civilizations in our galaxy, SETI scientists set out to find them. They had two basic options: face-to-face communication or long-distance communication. The former scenario required that extraterrestrials visit humans or vice versa. This seemed highly unlikely given the distances between our solar system and other stars in the Milky Way. The latter scenario involved radio broadcasts, either sending or receiving electromagnetic signals through space.
Arecibo Observatory
Photo courtesy of the NAIC - Arecibo Observatory, a facility of the NSF
Aerial view of the Arecibo Observatory in Puerto Rico

In 1974, astronomers intentionally transmitted a 210-byte message from the Arecibo Observatory in Puerto Rico in the hopes of signaling a civilization in the globular star cluster M13. The message contained fundamental information about humans and our corner of the universe, such as the atomic numbers of key elements and the chemical structure of DNA. But this sort of active communication has been rare. Astronomers mostly rely on passive communication -- listening for transmissions sent by alien civilizations.
A radio telescope is the tool of choice for such listening experiments because it's designed to detect longer-wavelength energy that optical telescopes can't see. In radio astronomy, a giant dish is pointed to a nearby, sunlike star and tuned to the microwave region of the electromagnetic spectrum. The microwave frequency band, between 1,000 megahertz and 3,000 megahertz (MHz), is ideal because it's less contaminated with unwanted noise. It also contains an emission line -- 1,420 MHz -- that astronomers can hear as a persistent hiss across the galaxy. This narrow line corresponds to energy transformations taking place in neutral hydrogen. As a primordial element of the universe, hydrogen should be known to all intergalactic civilizations, making it an ideal marker. Several teams from around the world have been systematically listening to stars across the Milky Way and adjacent galaxies since 1960.
Despite their collective efforts, no SETI search has received a confirmed, extraterrestrial signal. Our telescopes have picked up a few unexplained and intriguing signals, such as the so-called "Wow" signal detected by researchers at Ohio State University in 1977, but no transmission has been repeated in such a way that it provides indisputable evidence of extraterrestrial life. All of which brings us back to the Fermi Paradox: If thousands of civilizations in the Milky Way galaxy, why haven't we detected them?
Since Drake and Sagan made their estimates, astronomers have become more conservative. Paul Horowitz, who boldly guaranteed the existence of extraterrestrial life, has generated more modest results from the Drake Equation, finding that N may be closer to 1,000 civilizations [source: Crawford]. But even that figure may be too large.
In 2002, Skeptic magazine publisher Michael Shermer argued that astronomers weren't being critical enough in their evaluation of L, the length of time a civilization remains detectable. Looking at 60 civilizations that have existed on Earth since the dawn of humanity, Shermer came up with a value for L that ranged from 304.5 years to 420.6 years. If you plug these numbers into the Drake Equation, you find that N equals 2.44 and 3.36, respectively. Tweak the numbers some more, and you can easily get N to fall to one or even lower. Suddenly, the odds of hearing from an extraterrestrial life form are considerably lower.
Even the most enthusiastic SETI supporters are troubled by the lack of results produced by more than 40 years of "listening" to the cosmic airwaves. And yet most of that search has been confined to our home galaxy. Even if there are only three or four civilizations per galaxy, there are billions and billions of galaxies. This tilts the odds again in favor of finding extraterrestrial life, which is why many SETI astronomers take the same approach to their work as lottery players: You can't win if you don't play.

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